ProbabilityBasketballSM is a new kind of contest that's both fun and easy to play. Here's how:
For each game, make a pick of what you feel each team's probability of winning is from 0% to 100%. (Another way to look at it is that you enter how confident you are that the team you're picking as favorite will win the game.) Even after you submit your picks, you'll be allowed to change your picks at any time before the picking deadline.
Go ahead and make some picks for the three sample games shown. When you press "Simulate Games" the winners will be randomly selected based roughly on how strong each team seemed before the big tournament. Watch out for upsets though!
Scoring & Strategy
Any time a team you've picked as favorite (higher than 50%) wins the game, you'll gain points in the contest. But if that team loses, you'll lose points. The more bold your picks are (towards 100% for the favorite), the more points you can gain or lose. If you pick 50% for each team in a game, you won't gain or lose any points for that game.
The contest scoring function is specifically designed to award the players who most accurately gauge the strength of the teams. It's very important not to pick too boldly for closely-matched games, since the amount of points you can lose greatly outweighs the amount you can gain. However, it's also important not to pick too conservatively for uneven matchups since you could get left behind the players picking more boldly. In short, the best long-term strategy is to make picks that match, as closely as possible, the probabilities that each team will win. For a more detailed discussion of contest strategy, please see our Strategy Page.
Accumulate Your Score and Win Prizes
Throughout the tournament, you gain or lose points for each game. There are prizes for players having the highest total scores for round 1, round 2, over the last four rounds (Sweet 16), and for the entire tournament.
Compete Against Your Friends
Once you're registered in the contest, you can create or join a friends group and refer your friends to the contest.